The US National Intelligence Council (NIC) projected the world's real GDP to range between $105.7 trillion and $133.1 trillion by 2030 relative to $67.3 trillion in 2010. The NIC's best case scenario projects real global GDP at $133.1 trillion by 2030, almost doubling from 2010 levels. Under this scenario, it assumes that economic growth would be driven by the collaboration between the U.S. and China in an increasing number of areas.
It forecast Europe's GDP to reach 23.9 trillion or 18% of global GDP by 2030; followed by China with $23.4 trillion (17.6%); the U.S. with $22.4 trillion (16.8%); Latin America with $13.4 trillion (10.1%); Japan with $8 trillion (6%); India with $7.9 trillion (5.9%); Russia with $3.3 trillion (2.5%); and Sub-Saharan Africa with $2.8 trillion (2.1%); while other countries that include Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, Canada, South Asia ex-India, and the MENA region would account for $15.5 trillion (11.6%), and other Asia for $12.6 trillion (9.5%).
The NIC's worst case scenario projects global GDP at $105.7 trillion by 2030, as globalization stalls and the U.S. and Europe are no longer capable or interested in sustaining global leadership. It said that rich countries would distance themselves from many developing and poor countries in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. It forecast economic growth in major emerging markets to account for 75% of global growth.
The NIC's third scenario projects real global GDP at $112.2 trillion by 2030, as inequalities within countries and between rich and poor countries dominate. It pointed out that economic growth would continue, but that the world would be less secure due to political and social fractures.
Under this scenario, it forecast the GDP of the U.S. to reach $21 trillion (18.7%) by 2030, followed by Europe with $19.4 trillion (17.3%) and China with $17 trillion (15.2%). The fourth scenario projects real global GDP at $123 trillion by 2030. Under this scenario, the role of non-state actors would grow significantly because of new and emerging technologies, and that non-state actors would take the lead in confronting global challenges.
National Intelligence Council – Byblos Bank research
6 January
