Climate change remains a top priority for governments across the Middle East and North Africa, given its significant effects on the region’s economies, communities, and ecosystems. Various cities and areas within MENA face numerous climate risks, underscoring the critical need for robust adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Experts emphasize the urgent requirement for climate action plans to address the increasing vulnerabilities in the region. MENA is particularly at risk of extreme heat, with a World Bank study predicting temperatures could reach as high as 56 degrees Celsius if global temperatures rise by 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This trend could lead to summer temperatures in parts of Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq rising by as much as 8 degrees Celsius by 2100, further illustrating the severe implications of inaction in one of the hottest regions worldwide.
Additionally, data from the Food and Agriculture Organization indicates a bleak future for water resources. MENA currently ranks as the most water-stressed region globally, with approximately 60 percent of its population living in areas experiencing significant water stress. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that a 2-degree Celsius rise in temperature could lead to a decline in freshwater availability ranging from 15 percent to 45 percent. This climate-induced water scarcity is expected to adversely affect the region’s GDP growth, potentially leading to a reduction of 6 to 14 percent by 2050.
The region also faces increased risks from rising sea levels, with nearly a quarter of its coastal GDP and one-fifth of urban coastal areas vulnerable to flooding. By 2030, around 100 million people could be at risk of coastal flooding, threatening essential infrastructure, including 43 major port cities.
These multiple uncertainties suggest that climate change could undermine regional food systems and domestic agricultural productivity, exacerbating food insecurity and increasing reliance on food imports that are often subject to price volatility. According to the World Bank, up to 132 million people may fall into poverty due to severe climate-related events, jeopardizing the livelihoods of low-income communities.
Moreover, extreme weather events pose significant health risks, with estimates suggesting that heat stress could account for 40 percent of lost working hours by 2030. This could exacerbate existing health challenges, leading to an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths, particularly among vulnerable populations. Climate migration is also projected to rise substantially as a result of climate impacts.
These alarming forecasts highlight the critical need for regional governments to implement sustainable climate adaptation strategies to counteract the effects of climate change. This is why last year’s COP28 climate change conference served as a pivotal moment in accelerating the region’s pathway toward a more sustainable future.
The UAE’s leadership during COP28 was crucial in shaping the global climate agenda, culminating in the UAE Consensus, which details comprehensive agreements to tackle climate challenges alongside declarations aimed at enhancing global climate actions. On the first day of COP28, a groundbreaking agreement was reached to activate the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, with pledges amounting to $853 million to support developing nations vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Key outcomes from COP28, as outlined in the UAE Consensus and the Presidential Action Agenda, included an unprecedented decision to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, with an emphasis on ensuring this shift is equitable, systematic, and inclusive of all affected communities. Also, an agreement was made to accelerate global energy transition efforts, targeting a tripling of renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 while significantly cutting non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions.
Another noteworthy agreement was the launch of a global initiative to eliminate deforestation by 2030. Emissions are also aimed to peak by 2025, aligning with the 1.5-degree Celsius climate pathway and focusing on sustainable development and poverty alleviation. COP28 also generated significant momentum for advancing climate adaptation finance, surpassing the initial goal of doubling funding. Various declarations highlighted the growing need for policies that maximize public health benefits from climate change mitigation and safeguard vulnerable agricultural producers affected by climate change.
The MENA region has been making notable progress in its climate action efforts, reaffirming its commitment to align with the global climate agenda. At COP28, the UAE and the Gates Foundation announced a joint $200 million investment to leverage artificial intelligence and technology to address climate change impacts on global food systems.
These funds will support several key initiatives utilizing AI to enhance agricultural services for smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries, combat pest threats to palm trees, and bolster agricultural resilience through diagnostics, assessments, and high-quality weather forecasting technologies.
At COP29 last month, the UAE introduced the Mangrove Alliance for Climate Strategy, aimed at enhancing global mangrove conservation while reaffirming its commitment to restore 100 million mangroves by 2030. Concurrently, the UAE unveiled the Global Energy Efficiency Alliance, targeting a doubling of global energy efficiency rates by 2030.
The Middle East Green Initiative, led by Saudi Arabia, is recognized as the largest afforestation program globally, with ambitious goals to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions by expanding green spaces across the Kingdom and other MENA nations. The initiative aims to plant 50 billion trees and restore 200 million hectares of degraded land across the region.
Another innovative project was launched by the Saudi Electricity Company in partnership with King Abdullah University of Science and Technology at the Rabigh Power Plant. This initiative, supervised by the Ministry of Energy, aims to test cutting-edge carbon capture technology using freezing techniques to effectively capture carbon and treat pollutants, achieving carbon purity levels of up to 99 percent.
Oman is also positioning itself as a global leader in green hydrogen production, aiming to ramp up its production capacity with investments projected to hit $140 billion by 2050, targeting an annual output of 7.5 to 8 million tonnes.
Qatar’s recently unveiled National Climate Change Plan 2030 encompasses over 300 initiatives aimed at strengthening the country’s climate adaptation efforts, with a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent by 2030. The plan also focuses on restoring 30 percent of natural habitats affected by climate change, conserving 30 percent of land and coastal areas, and safeguarding 17 species either endangered or unique to the region.
Given the collective efforts undertaken by MENA countries, several critical factors must be addressed to ensure ongoing progress. Monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of climate initiatives through big data is essential for assessing commitments to climate targets. Increasing investments in green technologies and infrastructure, along with fostering collaboration with innovators from the private sector or research institutions, will be instrumental in unlocking new solutions driven by emerging technologies.
Engaging with subject matter experts can provide vital insights to tackle the complex challenges facing the region and help develop a skilled green workforce. Regulatory frameworks should support climate action agendas by enforcing efficiency targets and mitigation measures.
As the region confronts some of the most severe repercussions of climate change, the need for transformative climate policies is more urgent than ever. The momentum generated since COP28 has been critical in securing a greener, more resilient future, but sustained efforts will be essential to meet both regional and global climate goals.
